American Idol Season 5: Predictions

As hard as I try to not watch American Idol year after year, there is just some kind of evil, addictive quality that won’t release me from its clutches. I laugh. I groan. I swoon. I just can’t tear myself away.

After seeing all 24 finalists sing their little hearts out the last two nights, I thought I’d provide a little rundown of the amazing, the mediocre and the horrific.

THE LADIES – TOP SIX

1) Katharine McPhee, 21, Los Angeles
Clearly the best female vocalist of Season Five. She may look like an ordinary girl, but she has the pipes. Her mother is her vocal coach, which doesn’t necessarily mean anything (as we’ve seen in the painful audition rounds—“I’m in the choir”, “My sister is Toni Braxton”, etc.). Although I didn’t think this week was her best performance, I can (and should) see Miss McPhee making it to the top 3 or 4.

2) Mandisa, 29, Tennessee
You know a contestant is a diva when she goes by one name. I love it. And I love it when sistahs sing classic pop rock hits, as Mandisa did Tuesday night with Heart. I’m sick of hearing Whitney and Celine. Sistahs can sing some soul and rock out, too. This girl can bring it. And she may be a whole lotta woman, but she’s such a doll. Put that Simon in his place, girl!

3) Lisa Tucker, 16, Anaheim, CA
I love me some youngins—in a non-perverse Michael Jackson sorta way of course. We have yet to see a contestant under the age of 20 become the American Idol. Diana Degarmo came the closest in season 3 as a runner-up, but Fantasia took care of business that year (as she should have). Tucker is probably the most talented 16-year-old in all five seasons. She’s mature for her age, as evidenced in her song choice Tuesday night. Don’t be surprised to see her at the end.

4) Paris Bennett, 17, Georgia
I’ll be honest—I hated her performance Tuesday night. When she said she was singing Gladys Knight’s “Midnight Train to Georgia,” I really thought she would turn the stage upside down. I thought it was the perfect song choice. But then she opened her mouth and sang, and she sounded horrific. The judges, including Simon, loved her. Now I’m not kissing her ass because her mother and grandmother are successful singers in the music industry. I like her because she’s got a unique voice. Not quite like Fantasia, but there are some similarities. I’m willing to overlook Tuesday night’s performance and give her another shot. I know this girl can bring the house down. And she’s the cutest thing since poodles in skirts.

5) Kinnik Sky, 28, Georgia
The judges weren’t feeling her Tuesday night, but I thought she sounded great. It would be a shame to not see her in the top 12. American Idol’s audience seems to have a disinterest in R&B vocalists. Some of the best former AI contestants sing R&B—Tamyra Gray (Season 1), Latoya London (Season 3), and Vonzell Solomon (Season 4). Ultimately what befalls contestants like Kinnik is their lack of face time. Tuesday night was probably the first time viewers got to see Kinnik sing. I hope she gets another week.

6) Ayla Brown, 17, Massachusetts
I really enjoy this girl. She’s Miss “I Do It All”—she sings and has a college basketball scholarship. She did a beautiful rendition of Christina Aguilera’s “Reflection.” It wasn’t perfect, but I think she really showed the audience that she’s not just a jock with a decent singing voice. She won’t win, but she’s got a good shot at the top 12.

THE LADIES – BOTTOM SIX

7) Melissa McGhee, 21, Tampa, FL
She’s a wildcard for me. She was one of the better female singers Tuesday night, but overall I’m not sure if she’s really one of the best. I fear the audience could forget about her. I liken McGhee to Jessica Sienna from Season 4. She turned out a few good performances—enough to get her into the top 12 and stick around for a few weeks. But she just didn’t generate enough of a fan base. And she simply wasn’t as good as the best contestants. Same thing with Melissa. She’s forgettable. I’d like to see her in the top 12.

8) Kellie Pickler, 19, North Carolina
If American Idol were a personality contest, this girl would win—hands and feet down. She’s adorable and she’s got the sob story—her dad is in jail, her family is poor, yadda yadda yadda. Bottom line? This is a singing competition. The best singer will (and should) win. Pickler is not the best. She’s almost a carbon copy of Carrie Underwood with personality, but less talent. I have a feeling Pickler will make it to the top 12. After all, personality tends to carry certain people far in this competition. I’m just tired of the blonde, white, all-American girl thing. We had Kelly Clarkson. We had Carrie Underwood. Enough already. And hello, she’s orange!

9) Brenna Gethers, 25, Mt. Vernon, NY
And second place in the personality competition goes to . . . Brenna Gethers! The girl’s got some lip! But I like her. She talks back to Simon—hell, she’s the ghetto female version of him. And I mean that in a good way. But her voice? Not so sure. She played it pretty safe Tuesday night with Stevie Wonder’s “You’re the Sunshine of My Life.” Her voice sounded nice, but I’d need another a performance to determine a verdict. But I doubt she’ll last another week or two.

10) Becky O’Donahue, 25, Dobbs Ferry, NY
I just learned that this girl and her twin sister, Jesse, were not only in Maxim, but they also appeared on an episode of Fear Factor. Way to be reality TV whores. After hearing that, I hope this girl gets the boot. Sure, she’s probably the hottest female contestant, but best singer? Hell to the NO. Becky and Jesse probably lack any other talent aside from looking pretty. Why else would they waste their time with reality TV shows? You’re 25. Get a real job.

11) Heather Cox, 22, North Carolina
Unfortunately for Heather, Tuesday night was probably the first and last time she’ll perform on American Idol. No one knows who she is and her performance was pretty forgettable. Maybe if she got a little more face time during the first few rounds she would have a better shot now. It sucks, but that’s the reality of TV (pun intended).

12) Stevie Scott, 19, California
Probably out of all 12 girls, Stevie was the worst. She just sounded nervous and awkward. She has this powerful opera voice, but she tried doing this falsetto thing with a Josh Groban song. The worst thing to do during the first week of competition—the first time viewers get to see you and vote—is try showing off your versatility by switching it up a bit, trying a new genre or a different stylized song. If I’ve never heard you sing before, and you try something outside of your normal range, I’m not going to get it. You want to make a good first impression. Be yourself. Be who you are. Unfortunately for Stevie, she wasn’t and she’ll probably go home tonight.

THE GENTELMAN – TOP SIX

1) Chris Daughtry, 26, North Carolina
Want my predicition? Chris will win American Idol 5, and I stand by that choice. And if he doesn’t win, a guy most certainly will. I love Chris. He’s got this raw, raspy rock-singer voice. Dude sang Bon Jovi’s “Wanted Dead or Alive.” Nobody has sung Bon Jovi on American Idol, at least not from what I can recall. But Chris did Jon Bon Jovi justice. In fact, he may have sounded better. I can’t wait to see what this kid does next. He epitomizes great pop rock vocals.

2) Elliot Yamin, 27, Richmond, VA
Simon Cowell says Elliot is the best male vocalist that has ever competed on American Idol. So soon we forget Ruben Studdard and Clay Aiken. But I think Simon is on to something. Elliot sings so effortlessly and with such ease. It’s hard to believe a record label hasn’t already snatched him up. He did Stevie Wonder proud last night. Just amazing. Simply amazing. If Chris doesn’t win, Elliot better.

3) Taylor Hicks, 29, Birmingham, AL
I’m not going to discuss the gray hair. It’s irrelevant. If anything, it adds character to an already colorful fellow. The man is so jovial, so happy to be a part of American Idol. Like Paula Abdul said last night, Taylor eats, sleeps, and breathes music. He’s the reincarnation of Ray Charles. The moment he walked into the judge's room playing the harmonica, I was instantly rooting for him. He might not win this competition, but he deserves all the success in the world.

4) Ace Young, 25, Denver, CO
Oh, I can see a problem a-brewing. We got a fan favorite on our hands. Now I like this guy a lot—great voice, great hair, great eyes, blah, blah, blah. But I don’t think he’s the best. And he might just give some of the other more talented contestants a run for their money. If there’s a contestant the teenybopper girls are going to vote for, it’s going to be Ace. I’m putting all you other contestants on notice: BRING YOUR “A+” GAME!

5) Gedeon McKinney, 17, Memphis, TN
When I first heard this kid sing in the previous round, I wasn’t impressed. I was somewhat surprised he made it to the top 24. But after watching last night’s performance of “Shout,” I can see what the judges saw in him (aside from his crazy huge smile). He’s a born entertainer. He’s confident, but I don’t think he’s overconfident. However, I’m not completely sold on Gedeon. I’d like to hear him sing a song that better shows off his vocal range. Hopefully I’ll get to see him next week.

6) José “Sway” Penala, 28, San Francisco
Doesn’t he look like Frankie J? I know this guy can sing, but I was not impressed last night. Like I previously said, the worst thing to do with your first live TV performance is to try something different. He sang an Earth, Wind, & Fire song all in falsetto—big mistake. He might get by this week, but he better bring it next week. Do what you do best, people!

THE GENTLEMAN – BOTTOM SIX

7) Patrick Hall, 27, Arkansas
I got a peak at his singing abilities during the early audition rounds, and had I created these lists at that point, Patrick would’ve been in my top six picks. He’s Clay Aiken-like, but like Simon said, “with personality.” But he sang Melissa Etheridge’s “Come to My Window” last night. Why, man, why? He sounded OK, but I have a feeling the viewers are going to leave him outside of the “window” in the cold.

8) David Radford, 17, Illinois
I’m just not feeling the one-dimensional crooner thing. It didn’t work for John Stevens in Season 3, and I doubt it will work for David. He’s different, I get it. But I think he needs the show more than the show needs him. He’s got a nice Frank Sinatra-like voice. In fact, I think he’s better than John Stevens, but is this as far as he can go? Will viewers learn from the past? I’m thinking so.

9) Kevin Covais, 16, Levittown, NY
You gotta hand it to Kev—he’s absolutely charming and adorable. I want to pinch his cheeks. But is he good enough to be in this competition? I don’t think so and I hope the audience realizes that soon. He sang Brian McKnight’s “One Last Cry,” which sounded way better than I had expected. But he’s really not good enough to be in the competition. However, I have a sneaky suspicion that he, like Kellie Pickler, will move on to the top 12.

10) Bucky Covington, 28, North Carolina
Okay, I get that he’s country, and there’s really nothing wrong with that. But I’m not so sure about the voice. He’s alright, I guess. But should he really be in this competition? He sounded a lot like Chad Kroeger, lead singer of Nickelback, when he sang that Lynard Skynard song. His voice was way raspier than I remember, even though I only heard him sing once. Again, trying to do something different—don’t do that! Points for an original name though!

11) Will Makar, 16, Texas
What is it with the cute 16 year olds? Is it a rule on American Idol that there must be at least one adorable 16-year-old boy for the grannies to go gah-gah for? Will sang the Jackson Five’s “I Want You Back” because he thought his 16-year-old voice is similar to the 10-year-old voice of Michael Jackson. Was there soap in your ears, boy? If you get another shot, which you might, please sing a song that showcases your vocal abilities. I really don’t need a Mickey Mouse Club routine. Thanks. And what's up with looking like Fred Savage from the Wonder Years?

12) Bobby Bennett, 19, Denver, CO
Oh, Bobby. No, no, no. There is never a right time to sing Barry Manilow’s “Copa Cabana,” unless a drunken mess at an empty karaoke bar. The kid looked like a circus ringmaster. If anyone goes home this week, it has to be Bobby. If not for his mediocre singing, then definitely for his eerie obsession with Barry Manilow.

TOP FIVE: Chris Daughtry, Elliot Yamin, Taylor Hicks, Ace Young, and Katharine McPhee.

HONORABLE MENTIONS: Mandisa, Lisa Tucker, Paris Bennett

WILD CARDS: Ayla Brown, Kevin Covais, Kellie Pickler, Melissa McGhee

WINNER: Chris Daughtry

(Photos courtesy of IdolOnFox.com)